Signal And The Noise

The Signal and the Noise
by Nate Silver

“Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century.” Rachel Maddow, author ofDrift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a bloggerall by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation’s foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they goodor just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentaryand dangerousscience.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.


A Concise Summary of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise– in 30 Minutes
by

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t. Understand the key ideas behind The Signal and the Noise in a fraction of the time: * 13 chapter-by-chapter synopses * 34 essential insights and takeaways * 13 illustrative case studies In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, The Signal and the Noise explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, The Signal and the Noise provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise. A 30 Minute Expert Summary of The Signal and the Noise Designed for those whose desire to learn exceeds the time they have available, The Signal and the Noise summary helps readers quickly and easily become experts …in 30 minutes.

Signal to Noise
by Silvia Moreno-Garcia

Magic will break your heart.

Mexico City, 1988: Meche is fifteen, awkward, and obsessed with music. Her world revolves around her two misfit friends, Sebastian and Daniela, and a stack of records. Then Meche discovers how to turn music into magic, and things takes a turn for the strange…

Mexico City, 2009: Meche returns home for her estranged father’s funeral. Her family are trouble enough, but when she runs into Sebastian, long-buried childhood memories resurface. What really happened back then – and is there any magic left?


Signal to Noise
by Neil Gaiman

A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.

Signal to Noise
by Eric S. Nylund

Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that’s eager to do business with humanity — and its representative.

Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora’s Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action — and they’re willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth’s cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens…and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.


Signal & Noise
by John Griesemer

Signal & Noise is the epic page-turning story of the laying of the trans-Atlantic cable, and the men and women who are caught in its monumental tide. It is also a novel about the collision of worlds seen and unseen: the present and the future; the living and the dead; the real and the imagined.

On a wet London morning in 1857, American engineer Chester Ludlow arrives on the muddy banks of the Isle of Dogs to witness the launch of the largest steamship ever built, the Great Eastern. Also amidst the tumultuous throng is Jack Trace, a lonely bachelor and sketch artist hoping to make his name as an illustrator and journalist in the hurly burly of Fleet Street. Other witnesses include a drunken German by the name of Marx; the child who will christen the massive vessel by the wrong name; and Isambard Kingdom Brunel, the ship’s apoplectic and dwarfish architect who will soon die in ignominy. As chief engineer for the Atlantic Cable Company, the charismatic Chester enters the orbit of business and showmanship embodied by J. Beaumol Spude, the bombastic Western beef magnate who will mastermind the funding of the project; Joachim Lindt, creator of the Phantasmagorium, an animated tableaux vivant; and his beautiful wife, the musician Katerina Lindt. Drawn by the demands and adventure of creating the first transoceanic telegraph, Chester leaves behind his fragile wife, Franny, at the family estate of Willing Mind in Maine.

Abandoned and still mourning the accidental death of their four-year-old daughter, Franny finds solace in the company of Chester’s troubled brother, Otis, who introduces her to the mysteries of the world of spiritualism just as séancing is becoming all the rage in the jittery times leading up to the Civil War. As Chester achieves renown as the glamorous engineer of the trans-Atlantic project, Franny, desperate to contact her dead child, becomes the preeminent spirit conjuror of a war-torn America.


Introduction to Random Signals and Noise
by Wim C. Van Etten

Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal.

With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals.

Key features:

  • Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains.
  • Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver.
  • Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences.
  • Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise.

An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.


Random Signals and Noise
by Shlomo Engelberg

Understanding the nature of random signals and noise is critically important for detecting signals and for reducing and minimizing the effects of noise in applications such as communications and control systems. Outlining a variety of techniques and explaining when and how to use them, Random Signals and Noise: A Mathematical Introduction focuses on applications and practical problem solving rather than probability theory.

A Firm Foundation
Before launching into the particulars of random signals and noise, the author outlines the elements of probability that are used throughout the book and includes an appendix on the relevant aspects of linear algebra. He offers a careful treatment of Lagrange multipliers and the Fourier transform, as well as the basics of stochastic processes, estimation, matched filtering, the Wiener-Khinchin theorem and its applications, the Schottky and Nyquist formulas, and physical sources of noise.

Practical Tools for Modern Problems
Along with these traditional topics, the book includes a chapter devoted to spread spectrum techniques. It also demonstrates the use of MATLAB® for solving complicated problems in a short amount of time while still building a sound knowledge of the underlying principles.

A self-contained primer for solving real problems, Random Signals and Noise presents a complete set of tools and offers guidance on their effective application.


The Theory that Would Not Die
by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes’ rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany’s Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes’ rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

The Retreat of Western Liberalism
by Edward Luce

“Insightful and harrowing . . . lucidly expounds on the erosion of the West’s middle classes, the dysfunction among its political and economic elites and the consequences for America and the world.”—Michiko Kakutani, New York Times

In his widely acclaimed book Time to Start Thinking, Financial Times chief US columnist and commentator Edward Luce charted the course of America’s relative decline, proving to be a prescient voice on our current social and political turmoil.

In The Retreat of Western Liberalism, Luce makes a larger statement about the weakening of western hegemony and the crisis of liberal democracy—of which Donald Trump and his European counterparts are not the cause, but a terrifying symptom. Luce argues that we are on a menacing trajectory brought about by ignorance of what it took to build the West, arrogance towards society’s economic losers, and complacency about our system’s durability—attitudes that have been emerging since the fall of the Berlin Wall. We cannot move forward without a clear diagnosis of what has gone wrong. Unless the West can rekindle an economy that produces gains for the majority of its people, its political liberties may be doomed. The West’s faith in history teaches us to take democracy for granted. Reality tells us something troublingly different.

Combining on-the-ground reporting with intelligent synthesis of the literature and economic analysis, Luce offers a detailed projection of the consequences of the Trump administration, the rise of European populism, and a forward-thinking analysis of what those who believe in enlightenment values must do to defend them from the multiple onslaughts they face in the coming years.



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